Texas Holdem Statistics Chart
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The main underpinning of poker is math – it is essential. For every decision you make, while factors such as psychology have a part to play, math is the key element.
In this lesson we’re going to give an overview of probability and how it relates to poker. This will include the probability of being dealt certain hands and how often they’re likely to win. We’ll also cover how to calculating your odds and outs, in addition to introducing you to the concept of pot odds. And finally we’ll take a look at how an understanding of the math will help you to remain emotional stable at the poker table and why you should focus on decisions, not results.
What is Probability?
- Texas Hold'em Odds. The following Texas Holdem odds table highlights some common probabilities that you may encounter in Hold'em. It is not vital that you learn these probabilities, but it is useful to be aware of the chances of certain situations arising. Texas Hold'em odds chart.
- Texas Hold’Em Poker Odds and Statistics to Make You a Better Player Premium Hands Who doesn’t love looking down at their cards and seeing high pocket pairs or that A-K looking right back at them?
Probability is the branch of mathematics that deals with the likelihood that one outcome or another will occur. For instance, a coin flip has two possible outcomes: heads or tails. The probability that a flipped coin will land heads is 50% (one outcome out of the two); the same goes for tails.
Probability and Cards
When dealing with a deck of cards the number of possible outcomes is clearly much greater than the coin example. Each poker deck has fifty-two cards, each designated by one of four suits (clubs, diamonds, hearts and spades) and one of thirteen ranks (the numbers two through ten, Jack, Queen, King, and Ace). Therefore, the odds of getting any Ace as your first card are 1 in 13 (7.7%), while the odds of getting any spade as your first card are 1 in 4 (25%).
Unlike coins, cards are said to have “memory”: every card dealt changes the makeup of the deck. For example, if you receive an Ace as your first card, only three other Aces are left among the remaining fifty-one cards. Therefore, the odds of receiving another Ace are 3 in 51 (5.9%), much less than the odds were before you received the first Ace.
We have created a poker math and probability PDF chart (link opens in a new window) which lists a variety of probabilities and odds for many of the common events in Texas hold ‘em. This chart includes the two tables above in addition to various starting hand probabilities and common pre-flop match-ups. The poker odds calculators on CardPlayer.com let you run any scenario that you see at the poker table, see your odds and outs, and cover the math of winning and losing poker hands. Texas Hold'em Omaha.
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Pre-flop Probabilities: Pocket Pairs
In order to find the odds of getting dealt a pair of Aces, we multiply the probabilities of receiving each card:
(4/52) x (3/51) = (12/2652) = (1/221) ≈ 0.45%.
To put this in perspective, if you’re playing poker at your local casino and are dealt 30 hands per hour, you can expect to receive pocket Aces an average of once every 7.5 hours.
The odds of receiving any of the thirteen possible pocket pairs (twos up to Aces) is:
(13/221) = (1/17) ≈ 5.9%.
In contrast, you can expect to receive any pocket pair once every 35 minutes on average.
Pre-Flop Probabilities: Hand vs. Hand
Players don’t play poker in a vacuum; each player’s hand must measure up against his opponent’s, especially if a player goes all-in before the flop.
Here are some sample probabilities for most pre-flop situations:
Post-Flop Probabilities: Improving Your Hand
Now let’s look at the chances of certain events occurring when playing certain starting hands. The following table lists some interesting and valuable hold’em math:
Many beginners to poker overvalue certain starting hands, such as suited cards. As you can see, suited cards don’t make flushes very often. Likewise, pairs only make a set on the flop 12% of the time, which is why small pairs are not always profitable.
PDF Chart
We have created a poker math and probability PDF chart (link opens in a new window) which lists a variety of probabilities and odds for many of the common events in Texas hold ‘em. This chart includes the two tables above in addition to various starting hand probabilities and common pre-flop match-ups. You’ll need to have Adobe Acrobat installed to be able to view the chart, but this is freely installed on most computers by default. We recommend you print the chart and use it as a source of reference.
Odds and Outs
If you do see a flop, you will also need to know what the odds are of either you or your opponent improving a hand. In poker terminology, an “out” is any card that will improve a player’s hand after the flop.
One common occurrence is when a player holds two suited cards and two cards of the same suit appear on the flop. The player has four cards to a flush and needs one of the remaining nine cards of that suit to complete the hand. In the case of a “four-flush”, the player has nine “outs” to make his flush.
A useful shortcut to calculating the odds of completing a hand from a number of outs is the “rule of four and two”. The player counts the number of cards that will improve his hand, and then multiplies that number by four to calculate his probability of catching that card on either the turn or the river. If the player misses his draw on the turn, he multiplies his outs by two to find his probability of filling his hand on the river.
In the example of the four-flush, the player’s probability of filling the flush is approximately 36% after the flop (9 outs x 4) and 18% after the turn (9 outs x 2).
Pot Odds
Another important concept in calculating odds and probabilities is pot odds. Pot odds are the proportion of the next bet in relation to the size of the pot.
For instance, if the pot is $90 and the player must call a $10 bet to continue playing the hand, he is getting 9 to 1 (90 to 10) pot odds. If he calls, the new pot is now $100 and his $10 call makes up 10% of the new pot.
Experienced players compare the pot odds to the odds of improving their hand. If the pot odds are higher than the odds of improving the hand, the expert player will call the bet; if not, the player will fold. This calculation ties into the concept of expected value, which we will explore in a later lesson.
Bad Beats
A “bad beat” happens when a player completes a hand that started out with a very low probability of success. Experts in probability understand the idea that, just because an event is highly unlikely, the low likelihood does not make it completely impossible.
A measure of a player’s experience and maturity is how he handles bad beats. In fact, many experienced poker players subscribe to the idea that bad beats are the reason that many inferior players stay in the game. Bad poker players often mistake their good fortune for skill and continue to make the same mistakes, which the more capable players use against them.
Decisions, Not Results
One of the most important reasons that novice players should understand how probability functions at the poker table is so that they can make the best decisions during a hand. While fluctuations in probability (luck) will happen from hand to hand, the best poker players understand that skill, discipline and patience are the keys to success at the tables.
A big part of strong decision making is understanding how often you should be betting, raising, and applying pressure.
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Conclusion
A strong knowledge of poker math and probabilities will help you adjust your strategies and tactics during the game, as well as giving you reasonable expectations of potential outcomes and the emotional stability to keep playing intelligent, aggressive poker.
Remember that the foundation upon which to build an imposing knowledge of hold’em starts and ends with the math. I’ll end this lesson by simply saying…. the math is essential.
Related Lessons
By Gerald Hanks
Gerald Hanks is from Houston Texas, and has been playing poker since 2002. He has played cash games and no-limit hold’em tournaments at live venues all over the United States.
Related Lessons
Related Lessons
Texas Hold’em poker is everywhere these days — on TV, online, and in clubs and casinos. Before you sit down to a game of Texas Hold ’em, make sure you’re in good shape to be successful — take care of non-poker issues and check your physical, mental, and financial status. During the game, you need to understand basic odds and playable hands, as well as how to bluff successfully and follow proper poker etiquette. Texas Hold ‘Em also has its own abbreviations for online play.
Playable Texas Hold’em Hands
Texas Hold’em is a game of strategy, like any poker game, but where you’re sitting in relation to the action becomes part of your strategy when playing Hold’em. If you bet early, you generally need better cards than you do if you’re one of the blinds. The following table offers sound advice on what hands are playable when you’re sitting in different positions.
Questions to Ask Yourself before You Play Texas Hold’em
Whether you’re playing Texas Hold’em for fun or money — make that whether you’re playing for high stakes or low stakes — make sure you’re in a position mentally, physically, and financially to enjoy the game and make the most of your chances. Ask yourself these questions before you sit down to a game:
What is the purpose of my playing this session? Whether it’s to learn more, win money, or just hang with friends for a good time, make sure you know why you’re there and that you’re doing everything you can to accomplish that goal.
If I were to play an opponent who’s exactly the same as a well-rested, un-stressed version of me, would that person have an advantage? If the answer is “yes,” hold off on playing until you’re in a better psychological and physical state.
Can my bankroll handle this level of play? If not, play a lower level.
Are there any distractions in my life that I need to get rid of before I play? Pay your rent, walk your dog, call your significant other — whatever it is, get it out of your head so you can focus.
Do I know if the house I’m playing in has any bonuses for players such as bad beat jackpots, high hands, free food and/or drinks for players, or freeroll tournaments? If not, ask a floorperson before you start playing and find out about the details of how you can qualify.
Is there an aggressive person at the table I’ll be playing at? If so, try to get yourself seated to his left so you see the raises before your action and not after.
What do I know about the people sitting at the table? Whatever it is, use it to your advantage.
Rough Odds for Texas Hold’em
Playing poker is about playing the odds. The following list gives the odds for outcomes in Texas Hold’em hands. When you realize how heavily the odds are stacked against you, you may want to rethink going all-in before the flop with two suited cards. Use the odds to your advantage:
1 percent (1-in-100): Percentage of time that no player holds an Ace or a King at a table in a 10-handed game
1 percent (1-in-100): Percentage of time that if you hold two suited cards, you’ll flop a flush
6 percent (about 1-in-20): Percentage of time that five community cards will give pocket suited cards a flush
6 percent (about 1-in-20): Percentage of time that you’ll be dealt a pocket pair
8 percent (about 1-in-12): Percentage of time that you’ll hit at least trips after having a pair on the flop
12 percent (about 1-in-8): Percentage of time that you’ll flop trips if holding a pocket pair
12 percent (about 1-in-8): Percentage of time that two more cards will flop in the same suit as a suited pocket pair
19 percent (about 1-in-5): Percentage of time that the five community cards will at least trip your pocket pair
32 percent (about 1-in-3): Percentage of time that you’ll pair one of your cards on the flop (with no pocket pair)
33 percent (about 1-in-3): Percentage of time that you’ll make a full house or better after having trips on the flop
35 percent (about 1-in-3): Percentage of time that you’ll make a flush on the turn or river if you have four cards to a flush after the flop
Texas Hold’em Bluffing Tips
What makes any poker game exciting, and Texas Hold’em is certainly no exception, is that players can bluff at any point. Sometimes half the fun of a game is seeing whether you can successfully bluff an opponent out of some money. But, even as you’re misleading your opponents, make sure you bluff in the right circumstances. Heed these bluffing tips:
Texas Holdem Statistics Chart 2019
Only bluff where it makes a difference to your standing — either in a tournament or to your stack of chips.
Be careful bluffing someone considerably worse than you are. He may call just to see what you have, or on some probabilistically low draw when he already has you beaten anyway.
Bluff in situations where the board hints at the great hand you do not have: straights and flushes being hinted at by the board, the turn of an Ace, and so on.
Don’t try to bluff players who only play the most solid of hands if they’re still in the pot.
Don’t bluff people who are extremely likely to call.
Do bluff the timid or people who are likely to fold.
Remember that it’s easier to bluff in No-Limit than Limit because the bets (both implied and real) are bigger.
Poker Etiquette for Texas Hold’em
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The etiquette tips in the following list apply to Texas Hold’em and to any other poker game. Sure, you can have fun while you play poker, but you can have all the fun you want without being impolite to the other players or the dealer. Basic poker etiquette includes these tips:
Always play in turn.
Be aware of when it’s your turn to post the blinds and do so promptly.
Any time there is a discrepancy at the table, talk to the dealer — not the other players — about it. If you’re not able to get satisfaction from the dealer, ask for a floorperson. Talking with other players about the problem you perceive may generate ill will among people who have no authority in the situation in the first place.
Place your bets in front of you. Do not splash them into the pot.
Do not show your hand to other players at the table while a hand is in progress.
Tell the dealer when you intend to raise. In No-Limit, gather the amount that you’re going to raise and either announce the total, or move it all forward with one motion. This prevents being called on a “string raise.”
Don’t forget to tip your dealer. Dealers work for minimum wage and rely on tips for their livelihood.
Online Poker Abbreviations for Texas Hold’em
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Playing online poker in general, and Texas Hold’em in particular, is a very popular pastime. When you’re online, you may encounter abbreviations specific to the world of poker. To understand what other players are saying, get familiar with these online abbreviations:
Texas Holdem Poker Percentages Chart
Abbreviation | What It Means | Abbreviation | What It Means |
---|---|---|---|
86 | To remove or ban | ne1 | Anyone |
brb | Be right back | nh | Nice hand |
gc/nc | Slightly sarcastic phrase meaning good catch/nice catch | gg | Good game |
lol | Laughing out loud | gl | Good luck |
nl | No-Limit | ty | Thank you |
n1 | Nice one | 🙂 | Smiley face (view sideways) |